Milk Production
ISSN: 1949-1557
Released March 19, 2012, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).
February Milk Production up 8.3 Percent
Milk production in the 23 major States during February totaled 15.2 billion
pounds, up 8.3 percent from February 2011. However, adjusting production for
the additional day due to leap year causes February milk production to be up
4.6 percent on a per day basis. January revised production at 15.8 billion
pounds, was up 3.9 percent from January 2011. The January revision
represented an increase of 24 million pounds or 0.2 percent from last month's
preliminary production estimate.
Production per cow in the 23 major States averaged 1,782 pounds for February,
117 pounds above February 2011.
The number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major States was 8.51 million
head, 102,000 head more than February 2011, and 8,000 head more than January
2012.
Milk Cows and Production by Quarter - United States: 2011-2012
[May not add due to rounding]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quarter : : : : : : : Change
: 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from
: : : : : : : 2011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 head --- pounds --- million pounds percent
:
January-March ...: 9,168 5,286 48,459
April-June ......: 9,191 5,489 50,448
July-September ..: 9,200 5,292 48,684
October-December : 9,216 5,279 48,654
:
Annual ..........: 9,194 21,345 196,245
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Cows and Production: By Month, 23 Selected States, 2011-2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
Month : : : : : : : Change
: 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from
: : : : : : : 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent
:
January ..: 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9
February .: 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,782 13,997 15,162 8.3
March ....: 8,425 1,872 15,773
April ....: 8,431 1,835 15,475
May ......: 8,447 1,902 16,069
June .....: 8,450 1,820 15,382
July .....: 8,459 1,820 15,395
August ...: 8,463 1,813 15,342
September : 8,466 1,742 14,744
October ..: 8,475 1,790 15,170
November .: 8,475 1,739 14,742
December .: 8,485 1,818 15,426
:
Annual ...: 8,449 21,627 182,734
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Estimated Milk Cows and Production by Month - United States: 2011-2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/
:---------------------------------------------------------------------
: : : : : : : Change
Month : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from
: : : : : : : 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 head ---- pounds ---- million pounds percent
:
January ..: 9,160 9,241 1,790 1,836 16,393 16,970 3.5
February .: 9,163 9,250 1,645 1,760 15,077 16,280 8.0
March ....: 9,180 1,851 16,989
April ....: 9,182 1,814 16,652
May ......: 9,194 1,879 17,278
June .....: 9,196 1,796 16,518
July .....: 9,198 1,792 16,479
August ...: 9,200 1,785 16,422
September : 9,201 1,715 15,783
October ..: 9,212 1,767 16,278
November .: 9,213 1,717 15,820
December .: 9,223 1,795 16,556
:
Annual ...: 9,194 21,345 196,245
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: February 2011 and 2012
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/
:----------------------------------------------------------------------
State : : : : : : : Change
: 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from
: : : : : : : 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: 1,000 head ---- pounds --- million pounds percent
:
Arizona .......: 185 192 1,915 2,060 354 396 11.9
California ....: 1,756 1,784 1,800 1,965 3,161 3,506 10.9
Colorado ......: 123 133 1,795 1,865 221 248 12.2
Florida .......: 118 122 1,690 1,740 199 212 6.5
Idaho .........: 573 580 1,690 1,800 968 1,044 7.9
Illinois ......: 98 100 1,530 1,630 150 163 8.7
Indiana .......: 171 175 1,585 1,700 271 298 10.0
Iowa ..........: 208 205 1,630 1,750 339 359 5.9
Kansas ........: 122 123 1,615 1,710 197 210 6.6
Michigan ......: 364 374 1,790 1,910 652 714 9.5
:
Minnesota .....: 470 465 1,485 1,585 698 737 5.6
Missouri ......: 95 93 1,140 1,215 108 113 4.6
New Mexico ....: 324 335 1,890 1,985 612 665 8.7
New York ......: 610 610 1,620 1,730 988 1,055 6.8
Ohio ..........: 271 270 1,500 1,570 407 424 4.2
Oregon ........: 119 123 1,555 1,600 185 197 6.5
Pennsylvania ..: 543 541 1,510 1,570 820 849 3.5
Texas .........: 425 436 1,720 1,835 731 800 9.4
Utah ..........: 86 91 1,590 1,690 137 154 12.4
Vermont .......: 135 133 1,465 1,535 198 204 3.0
:
Virginia ......: 95 96 1,440 1,510 137 145 5.8
Washington ....: 251 263 1,820 1,895 457 498 9.0
Wisconsin .....: 1,266 1,266 1,585 1,715 2,007 2,171 8.2
:
23-State Total : 8,408 8,510 1,665 1,782 13,997 15,162 8.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Milk Cows and Production - 23 Selected States: January 2011 and 2012
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Milk cows 1/ : Milk per cow 2/ : Milk production 2/
:-----------------------------------------------------------------------
State : : : : : : : Change
: 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : 2011 : 2012 : from
: : : : : : : 2011
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: -- 1,000 head -- ---- pounds --- million pounds percent
:
Arizona .......: 185 190 2,015 2,100 373 399 7.0
California ....: 1,752 1,782 1,935 2,030 3,390 3,617 6.7
Colorado ......: 123 133 1,975 1,970 243 262 7.8
Florida .......: 116 122 1,775 1,780 206 217 5.3
Idaho .........: 573 581 1,860 1,920 1,066 1,116 4.7
Illinois ......: 98 100 1,660 1,710 163 171 4.9
Indiana .......: 172 175 1,710 1,775 294 311 5.8
Iowa ..........: 210 205 1,775 1,865 373 382 2.4
Kansas ........: 123 123 1,775 1,800 218 221 1.4
Michigan ......: 363 372 1,960 1,980 711 737 3.7
:
Minnesota .....: 470 465 1,630 1,660 766 772 0.8
Missouri ......: 95 93 1,240 1,270 118 118
New Mexico ....: 323 335 2,105 2,045 680 685 0.7
New York ......: 610 610 1,775 1,800 1,083 1,098 1.4
Ohio ..........: 270 270 1,620 1,640 437 443 1.4
Oregon ........: 120 123 1,685 1,685 202 207 2.5
Pennsylvania ..: 543 540 1,640 1,660 891 896 0.6
Texas .........: 425 435 1,875 1,900 797 827 3.8
Utah ..........: 87 91 1,740 1,805 151 164 8.6
Vermont .......: 135 133 1,605 1,625 217 216 -0.5
:
Virginia ......: 95 96 1,545 1,575 147 151 2.7
Washington ....: 252 263 1,975 1,995 498 525 5.4
Wisconsin .....: 1,265 1,265 1,735 1,795 2,195 2,271 3.5
:
23-State Total : 8,405 8,502 1,811 1,859 15,219 15,806 3.9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Includes dry cows; excludes heifers not yet fresh.
2/ Excludes milk sucked by calves.
Statistical Methodology
Survey Procedures: Primary data used to determine these estimates were
obtained from a sample of producers. Individual States maintain a list of all
known milk producers and information on the size of their herd. States use
all known sources of producers to ensure that their lists are as complete as
possible. Generally, all large producers and a sample of small producers are
included in the survey. Questionnaires are mailed to producers near the end
of the month to obtain data for the first day of the month. Additional
reports are obtained by telephone, as needed, to supplement the mail
response. Where feasible, States utilize state and federal administrative
data, rather than conduct a monthly survey, to estimate milk production. This
eliminates duplication of data gathering by different government agencies.
Indications of milk cow inventory are also obtained in the January and July
Cattle Surveys.
Estimation Procedures: State offices prepare these estimates by using a
combination of survey indications, historic trends, and any available
administrative data. Individual State estimates are reviewed by the
Agricultural Statistics Board for reasonableness.
Revision Policy: Milk production, rate per cow, and number of cows are
subject to revision the following month for monthly States or the following
quarter for the quarterly States. Normally, Federal Market Order sales are
the main basis for revisions. However, data for all orders are not available
in time for this revision. Estimates are again subject to revisions in
February each year based on additional administrative data. In the event that
additional changes are necessary, a third revision is possible in February
the following year. Estimates are again reviewed after data from the five-
year Census of Agriculture are available. No revisions are made after that
date.
Reliability: Since all operations with dairy animals are not included in the
sample, survey estimates are subject to sampling variability. Survey results
are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omissions, duplications, and
mistakes in reporting, recording, and processing the data. The effects of
these errors cannot be measured directly. They are minimized through rigid
quality controls in the data collection process and through a careful review
of all reported data for consistency and reasonableness.
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the estimates in this
report, the "Root Mean Square Error" is shown for selected items on the next
page. The "Root Mean Square Error" is a statistical measure based on past
performance and is computed using the differences between first and final
estimates. The "Root Mean Square Error" for the 23 State milk cow inventory
estimates over the past 24 months is 0.1 percent. This means that chances are
2 out of 3 that the final estimate will not be above or below the current
estimate of 8.51 million head by more than 0.1 percent. Chances are 9 out of
10 that the difference will not exceed 0.2 percent.
Reliability of Monthly Milk Production Estimates
[Based on data for the past 24 months]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Root mean : 90 percent : Difference between first and latest estimate
: square error : confidence : : : : :
: : level :-------------------------------------------------------------
Item : : : : : : Months
: : : : : :-------------------------------
: : : Average :Smallest : Largest : Below latest : Above latest
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: percent percent -------- 1,000 ------- ----- number -----
:
:
Milk production ..............: 0.2 0.3 19 1 60 17 7
:
All milk cows ................: 0.1 0.2 7 1 17 15 9
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Information Contacts
Listed below are the commodity specialists in the Livestock
Branch of the National Agricultural Statistics Service to
contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent
to nass@nass.usda.gov
Dan Kerestes, Chief, Livestock Branch ........... (202) 720-3570
Scott Hollis, Head, Livestock Section ........... (202) 690-2424
Travis Averill - Cattle, Cattle on Feed ...... (202) 720-3040
Sherry Bertramsen - Livestock Slaughter ...... (515) 284-4340
Doug Bounds - Hogs and Pigs, Goats ........... (202) 720-3106
Mike Miller - Milk Production and Milk Cows .. (202) 720-3278
Everett Olbert - Dairy Products Prices ....... (202) 720-4751
Lorie Warren - Dairy Products, Sheep ......... (202) 690-3236
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